Why did you take this book off the shelf?
Why did you turn it over and start reading what is written on the back?
You picked up a book and are reading. This is a result. And if so, there is probably a reason, although it is not certain that you know what it is. In any case, this is what we assume: every result must have a cause. There is a tide on the beach, there is a traffic jam on the road, the girl has blue eyes, one tree grows fast and the other slowly. Why? The results can be seen, but the causes are not always easy to identify.
The data can confuse us. Is there a connection between an increase in crime and an increase in ice cream consumption? Is there a connection between smoking and cancer? In both cases there is a correlation. When you eat more ice cream, there is more crime. When you smoke more, you get sicker. But correlation does not always indicate causation. In the case of the ice cream there is no causality. In the case of smoking there is causality. It is not easy to prove it. It is not at all easy to prove it. But it is impossible to fully understand the world without recognizing complex relationships of cause and effect.
Yehuda Perel is a groundbreaking scientist, one of the leaders of the causality revolution that shook science. He describes learning this process as diligently climbing a ladder. In the human world, causal understanding is an essential matter. In the future, it will be the key to a leap in the world of artificial intelligence.
You too are invited to climb, patiently, curiously, alertly. The Meh and Lemma book will be your guide. With him you will climb the mountain of intervention, with him you will experiment with Bayesian thinking, you will learn the response function, he will introduce you to Simpson's paradox, remind you of the philosopher David Hume and the naturalist Francis Galton, describe to you the napkin problem, introduce you to concepts such as obfuscation and backdoor, illusions and formulas Mediation.
If you want to understand the whys and wherefores, you will have to deal with all of these. It won't always be easy, but it will be interesting.
